New Delhi :
Lashkar-e-Taiba boss Hafiz Saeed's recent threats to step up violence in
Jammu and Kashmir after the US pullout from Afghanistan in a year's
time might be crafty attempts to boost the morale of separatists and
rally jihadi factions.
Saeed's public statements and his private pledges to a visiting Hurriyat delegation are being seen in the context of an increasing flow of Kashmiri "returnees" in contrast to lower numbers of infiltrators in the past couple of years.
Kashmiris who had gone to Pakistan and have chosen to return to the Indian side — following the Nepal route -- have been rising with some 550 persons reaching Jammu and Kashmir last year as against a much lower estimate of infiltrators. The returnees comprised 124 men who had previously crossed over and their families.
Security forces have become more adept at foiling infiltration and although the figures for those who have successfully slipped in are debatable, the state administration feels the numbers are declining despite repeated claims of thousands waiting to cross over.
Some of those returning left in haste with children in the midst of completing education degrees as in the case of a girl who was one year away from a medical qualification. Indian authorities are trying to rehabilitate returnees without seeming to differentiate these persons from Kashmiri Pandits.
Well placed sources said reports of Pakistan based outfits warning of renewed "armed struggle" in 2014 are being scrutinized with due diligence but there is a view that the rhetoric is intended to buoy the spirits of separatists and keep Indian agencies off balance.
News trickling in from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir indicates that some of the Kashmiri terrorist leaders are viewing the next assembly election due in the second half of 2014 with interest. Although under the iron gaze of Pakistan agencies, leaders like Syed Salahuddin are believed to be restless.
Sabre-rattling by terror outfits is being viewed in the context of infiltration being sustained increasing by non-Kashmiris with indoctrinated men from Pakistan and even other nationalities crossing the line of control.
It is felt the experience gained by Indian security forces in maintaining a check along the LoC may stand the challenge posed by any offensive planned by outfits backed by the Pakistan army. A sudden upsurge in militancy-related violence would require the collapse of the security grid and this is not seen to be likely.
The harmonization of operations along the LoC and in interior areas and the improved capacities of the state police have resulted in a marked step-up in intelligence as well, sources said. Militant statements like that from Saeed are intended to convince ditherers that there is no diminution in the capacity of Lashkar and Pakistan to strike in J&K.
A creeping peace dividend — although prone to sudden disruptions as demonstrated by the beheading of an Indian soldier along the LoC — is seen as a positive as tourism generates jobs and improves the economy.
Source : TOI
Saeed's public statements and his private pledges to a visiting Hurriyat delegation are being seen in the context of an increasing flow of Kashmiri "returnees" in contrast to lower numbers of infiltrators in the past couple of years.
Kashmiris who had gone to Pakistan and have chosen to return to the Indian side — following the Nepal route -- have been rising with some 550 persons reaching Jammu and Kashmir last year as against a much lower estimate of infiltrators. The returnees comprised 124 men who had previously crossed over and their families.
Security forces have become more adept at foiling infiltration and although the figures for those who have successfully slipped in are debatable, the state administration feels the numbers are declining despite repeated claims of thousands waiting to cross over.
Some of those returning left in haste with children in the midst of completing education degrees as in the case of a girl who was one year away from a medical qualification. Indian authorities are trying to rehabilitate returnees without seeming to differentiate these persons from Kashmiri Pandits.
Well placed sources said reports of Pakistan based outfits warning of renewed "armed struggle" in 2014 are being scrutinized with due diligence but there is a view that the rhetoric is intended to buoy the spirits of separatists and keep Indian agencies off balance.
News trickling in from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir indicates that some of the Kashmiri terrorist leaders are viewing the next assembly election due in the second half of 2014 with interest. Although under the iron gaze of Pakistan agencies, leaders like Syed Salahuddin are believed to be restless.
Sabre-rattling by terror outfits is being viewed in the context of infiltration being sustained increasing by non-Kashmiris with indoctrinated men from Pakistan and even other nationalities crossing the line of control.
It is felt the experience gained by Indian security forces in maintaining a check along the LoC may stand the challenge posed by any offensive planned by outfits backed by the Pakistan army. A sudden upsurge in militancy-related violence would require the collapse of the security grid and this is not seen to be likely.
The harmonization of operations along the LoC and in interior areas and the improved capacities of the state police have resulted in a marked step-up in intelligence as well, sources said. Militant statements like that from Saeed are intended to convince ditherers that there is no diminution in the capacity of Lashkar and Pakistan to strike in J&K.
A creeping peace dividend — although prone to sudden disruptions as demonstrated by the beheading of an Indian soldier along the LoC — is seen as a positive as tourism generates jobs and improves the economy.
Source : TOI
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