Split with Nitish will only boost BJP in Bihar due to the Modi Factor : LensOnNews Poll

Split with Nitish will only boost BJP in Bihar due to the Modi Factor : LensOnNews Poll

Scenario 1: NDA is intact, no change in alliances

Scenario 2: NDA splits, other alliances remain unchanged

Scenario 3: BJP fights separately, JDU and Congress fight together

The Modi factor

There is a clear trend line from 2009 onwards showing increasing popular support for the BJP in Bihar at the expense of other parties including its own ally the JDU. Thus the BJP’s vote share increased from 14 per cent in the Lok Sabha poll of 2009 to 16.5 per cent in the assembly elections of 2010, while the JDU’s vote share declined from 24 per cent to 22 per cent; the vote share of RJD/LJP declined marginally from 26 to 25.5 per cent; and that of Congress went down from 10.3 to 8.4 per cent.

The findings of the LenOnNews poll are consistent with this trend, showing the BJP increasing its vote share further to 31 per cent if it fights the coming Lok Sabha elections on its own – due to ‘the Modi factor’. This is the ground reality when Narendra Modi has not held even a single rally in Bihar, nay has not even set foot in Bihar. There is every reason to think that when he starts campaigning in earnest it will only consolidate and further strengthen BJP’s position in the state.

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